Euro 2008 Preview

So on the eve of the opening game, it is time for a bit of consideration. In fact the truth is the tournament is wide open. Any team in the betting down to Switzerland at 20/1 looks capable of winning the Euro 2008s. And that is discounting some dark horses who could come good just as Greece did in 2004. Greece are 25/1. Poland and Romania are 40/1.

As ever with tournament play the opening odds are a blind stab in the dark where form is irrelevant, history can be a factor and so can other mitigating events like how many top team players may have been exhausted in the end of season rush for trophies. Plus too some of the unfancied countries will have players keen to showcase their skills to the rich cheque books of the Premiership, La Liga and Serie A, so their motivation may be high. And there a few players that no one is mentioning but who still have to prove themselves on the big stage who could disappear or come good. Arjen Robben of Holland is one who could outshine everyone if he is in the mood.

As the Africa Cup of Nations illustrated all too well the real battle in tournaments like this is between the organised, modest, committed hard working teams against the flair and skill of one of two great players who might take the tournament by the scruff of the neck. But doing that across six games can be the issue as Drogba and Eto’o discovered in Ghana. And to win a team is going to have to win at least five games on the trot, even if one, or possibly two, of those might be on penalties, although the sheer extra energy involved in playing extra time with games squeezed tightly together should make that option less favourable to any team capable of winning in the 90 minutes.

The odds do not reflect the realities of recent times. Romania at 40/1 are ranked 12th in the world by FIFA and have a good tournament record and qualified ahead of Holland. If France or Italy do not start brightly, the door could open for them. Poland have Leo Beenhakker in charge and a naturalised Brazilian centre forward who follows the Polish habit of long names albeit with a Latin twist Roger Guerreiro. Thy are in a three horse race with favourites Germany and England’s conquerors Croatia, but will all fancy their chances.

The big teams like Spain and Portugal and France will have to rely on their big names coming good in the quarter and semi finals if they are to overcome the kind of disciplined organised defensive play such teams are capable of. The Italians of course mix both defensive efficiency and attacking flair and none of their key players was involved in the last stages of the Champions League so they may be fresh and hungry to add the European trophy to the World Cup. Cannavaro, the captain will be missed and it has to be said they are not a young side, not if the month is hot and the games are packed tightly up against each other.

Holland have the players to remind us all why they are such a great soccer nation but like Spain the question is who will turn up? It is probably good for them to face France and Italy so early to wake them up. Spain? Who nows?

Everyone fancies Germany to be their usual pragmatic tournament self, and if they can edge out Poland or Croatia, then they are in the quarters and no one will want to be cast as their executioner.

Hosts Austria everyone agrees are likely to be just that nice hosts, hold a nice party but not take centre stage on the pitch. Likewise although Switzerland look accomplished even with home advantage they do not look to be winners. They are also in the same group as the Czech Republic who could be difficult for anyone if they can find someone to score the goals.

So one wants to say that leaves France with its array of forward power and Portugal’s mesmeric midfield to dominate. But even if they manage that for a few games, can they keep up the style and flair through all of June? What a final that would be. The odds are 18/1. Let us hope it is that kind of tournament.

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